1. What Sparked the Latest Iran–Israel War?

On June 13, 2025, Israel conducted Operation Rising Lion, a comprehensive series of airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear sites. This was the largest Israeli military strike against Iran since the 1980s .

The airstrikes were directed at:

• Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant
• Ballistic missile factories
• Military command centers
• Residences of top commanders
  
  

Explosions shook Tehran and other metropolitan areas, and Iran announced the killing of prominent men: General Hossein Salami, Major General Gholam Ali Rashid, and nuclear experts Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi . The United Nations and major world powers called for restraint with urgency .

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, retaliated in response by promising a "bitter fate" to Israel, threatening severe reprisal .

2. Why Now? What Prompted This Strike?

Israel attributed Iran's swift nuclear development—reporting that the nation possessed sufficient enriched uranium to create as many as 15 nuclear bombs—as the prime threat . The strike came merely days before a scheduled session of nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. in Oman. Israel said the motive was to prevent this "existential threat" .

3. What Exactly Was Hit?

Some of the major targets hit by Israel were:

• Natanz – Iran's primary uranium enrichment facility
• Missile production plants
• Military command posts
• APRESIDENTIAL structures, including homes of top military leaders 
  
  

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported damage at strategic nuclear facilities and is currently tracking radiation.

4. Who Were the Key Casualties?

Iran lost a few high-profile individuals:

• General Hossein Salami –Iran's Revolutionary Guard Commander
• Major General Gholam Ali Rashid – Iranian armed forces second-in-command deputy chief
• Major General Mohammad Bagheri – Armed Forces Chief of Staff (reports conflicting) 
• Nuclear experts Abbasi-Davani and Tehranchi 
  
  

Also civilian casualties, including some children in Tehran.

5. How Did Iran Respond?

Iran has announced preparedness for retaliatory strikes, possibly using missiles or drones. Their defence minister cautioned this would include U.S. military installations across the region.

6. Global Economic Impact: Oil Prices Soar

An immediate consequence of the escalation was an oil price surge:

• Brent crude increased ~7–14%, rising to $75+ per barrel
• WTI crude also jumped strongly, by about 8–10%
• It was the biggest single-day oil surge since May 2022
  
  

Why the sudden big surge? Iran is at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supply. Any danger to this route causes panic regarding energy security . In India, stocks of government-owned oil majors such as IOC and BPCL also jumped in reaction .

Other markets also reacted strongly:

• Global equities declined, and U.S. futures dropped 1.7–1.8%
• Institutional investors purchased safe-haven assets: gold increased ~1.5%, yen and Swiss francs appreciated, and 10‑year U.S. Treasury yields fell

7. Effects on Other Countries

This regional war is not in isolation but impacts countries across the globe in some fundamental ways:

1. Financial Markets

Markets reacted with risk-off actions, compelling investors into safer assets such as gold and government bonds.

2. Oil-Dependent Economies

Nations that import a large majority of their oil—such as India, Japan, and European countries—see increased energy costs, which could raise inflation .

3. Air Travel

Flight disruptions hit arrivals and departures from Tehran and Tel Aviv. Major airlines are being diverted .

4. Diplomatic Balance

Though the U.S. denied direct involvement, it is still concerned at broader destabilisation. Regional diplomacy is now extremely vulnerable .

8. Human Toll: Lives of Ordinary People

Both countries are suffering distress:

In Iran

• The people in Tehran and other urban centers heard explosions and sirens and were filled with fear.
• There were casualties among civilians, including children.
• The families are traumatized, trying to come to terms with loss and fear of being hit again.
  
  

In Israel

• Sirens alerted about potential retaliatory rocket or drone strikes.
• Public areas shut; airspace closed and schools suspended.
• Israel's national carrier canceled flights, and an emergency nation-wide response was triggered.
  
  

9. Could the Conflict Spread?

Yes. Here's why:

• Iran will probably respond, potentially targeting Israeli or American assets throughout the region.

• The Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes may become vulnerable to shipping and energy exports.

• Israel's armed forces are preparing for a "prolonged campaign," putting thousands of troops on standby across borders.
  
  

10. Geopolitical Impact

• Oil geopolitics: Uncertainty in this conflict may affect OPEC plans and energy projections.
  
  
• Diplomacy: Disrupted nuclear talks in Oman. Future talks could be interrupted.
  
  
• Regional realignments: Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, are observing closely events likely to shift security equations.
  
  

11. Energy Markets & Historical Parallels

The present oil shock reminds one of crises such as the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which caused global price surges. Current events will have similar cascading effects if Iran continues to interfere with exports or transit routes.

Insurance rates for shipping are also increasing, making energy commerce more expensive.

12. Possible Paths Forward

13. What People Are Feeling

• Fear and anxiety are widespread in both Iran and Israel.
• Global markets remain jittery, with risk appetite low .
• Energy-dependent households worldwide may deal with sudden price hikes.
• Refugee and humanitarian consequences are possible if the conflict expands.

14. How You Can Stay Informed

• Monitor trusted news outlets: Reuters, AP, The Guardian
• Use energy-focused sources like Bloomberg, EIA, and OPEC
• Watch financial indexes for volatility signals
• Follow updates from the IAEA
• Heed government advisories about travel and safety

Key Takeaways

1. Operation Rising Lion is the largest Israel attack on Iran in years.
2. The assault was on nuclear facilities, missile plants, and top officials.
3. Iran had multiple top military commanders and scientists killed.
4. The conflict shocked oil markets—prices rose as much as 14%.
5. Financial markets across the globe witnessed share falls and safe-haven rallies.
6. Iranian and Israeli civilians are experiencing extreme stress and disruption.
7. Regional alignments, diplomatic efforts, and the Strait of Hormuz are seriously challenged.

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